September is here and I am useless. The first Saturday of a college football season is the only day of the year I set three alarms and need none of them. So let me say the quiet part first: my list of CFB best bets today is empty, and that is on purpose. Openers are the softest, dumbest, most beautiful market of the year, and the reason they are soft is the same reason they are dangerous. Nobody has seen anybody play.

What I have is a radar. Here is what is on it.

The CFB best bets today radar: five Week 1 spots

  1. Colorado at Georgia Tech, Thursday 8:00 ET. The first real test-versus-test game of the week, both sides opening cold, one camera crew and the entire country watching. Everything projected here is projected off last year's ghosts. What turns it into a play: an available-personnel picture I trust by Wednesday night, and a posted number that sits more than a field goal off my projection once I have it.
  2. Miami at Stanford, Friday 9:00 ET. Three time zones, a late kick, and a body-clock ask that Week 1 rosters handle worse than anybody wants to admit. What turns it into a play: a price that asks Miami to travel across the country and win comfortably, which is a lot to ask of a team that has not hit anybody in a stadium yet.
  3. Fresno State at USC, Friday 9:00 ET. Coliseum opener, warm night, two offenses that will not be tackling much in September. This is a total conversation before it is a side conversation. What turns it into a play: a first-half number that has not caught up to how these openers actually script.
  4. East Carolina at Alabama, Saturday noon ET. Tuscaloosa at midday in early September is its own weather event, and the DeBoer era is into year three with the national analysts already warming their hands over it. The interesting question here is never who wins. It is how long the starters stay on the field. What turns it into a play: nothing on the side, honestly. I am watching this one to learn.
  5. Toledo at Michigan State, Friday 8:00 ET. MAC teams travel into Big Ten openers every year and the good ones cover more than the marquee tells you. What turns it into a play: a number that treats this like a body-bag game when the film says it is a football game.

The one I lean on

Colorado at Georgia Tech, and it is a lean, not a play. Home team, Thursday night, first game, and the side that handles chaos better usually wins the openers. Mind the gap like it owes you money, but do not pay for it until you see who is actually dressed.

checked the almanac: colorado and georgia tech both finished the 1990 season as national champions, on different ballots, in the last great split anybody argued about. thirty-six years later they open a season against each other on a thursday. that is a nice piece of scheduling.

Nothing cleared my number this morning. That is not modesty, that is Tuesday. Openers this week means information keeps arriving right up to kickoff, and I would rather be late with a real edge than early with a guess. This is entertainment with variance, 21 and up where legal, and the sizing is yours and only yours.

What I am watching next: the availability reports out of Boulder and Atlanta between now and Thursday afternoon. That is the first thing that will move my number, and if it moves it far enough, you know where to find me.