The Edge
Where the books are wrong right now.
Every book posts its own number, and they do not agree. Big Mike strips the juice out of the market to find what each game is really worth, then flags every book currently paying more than that. The bigger the gap, the more the book is handing you. See which book pays the most →
| League | Game | Bet | Book | Price | Fair | Edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams 4:25 PM ET · Dec 20 | Dallas Cowboys ML | CZR | +300 | 27.7% | +10.7% | Badly mispriced |
| NFL | Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams 4:05 PM ET · Oct 18 | Arizona Cardinals ML | CZR | +650 | 14.4% | +8% | Badly mispriced |
| NFL | Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers 8:20 PM ET · Jan 3 | Philadelphia Eagles ML | CZR | +150 | 42.6% | +6.5% | Badly mispriced |
| NFL | Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams 8:15 PM ET · Oct 12 | Buffalo Bills ML | CZR | +180 | 37.8% | +5.8% | Mispriced |
| NFL | Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills 8:20 PM ET · Nov 26 | Kansas City Chiefs ML | CZR | +150 | 42.1% | +5.3% | Mispriced |
| NFL | Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks 8:15 PM ET · Dec 25 | Los Angeles Rams ML | DK | +110 | 50% | +5% | Mispriced |
| NFL | Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions 1:00 PM ET · Nov 26 | Chicago Bears ML | CZR | +140 | 43.7% | +4.8% | Mispriced |
| NFL | Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00 PM ET · Sep 20 | Cleveland Browns ML | CZR | +250 | 29.9% | +4.6% | Mispriced |
| NFL | Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets 1:00 PM ET · Oct 25 | Miami Dolphins ML | CZR | +150 | 41.7% | +4.1% | Mispriced |
| NFL | Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans 1:00 PM ET · Nov 15 | Tennessee Titans ML | CZR | +150 | 41.7% | +4.1% | Mispriced |
| NFL | Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers 8:20 PM ET · Jan 3 | San Francisco 49ers ML | DK | -125 | 57.4% | +3.3% | Off the number |
| NFL | Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings 1:00 PM ET · Nov 29 | Atlanta Falcons ML | DK | +180 | 36.8% | +3% | Off the number |
Fair value = consensus no-vig probability across books (median of de-vigged prices). EV% = expected value of the posted price against that fair probability. Lines move; verify at the book. Big Mike texts the ranked slate with his read on which gaps are real.
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