The most consequential thing that happened overnight was a workout. Shohei Ohtani took one Saturday, the word out of Los Angeles is that it went well, and Dave Roberts says his slugger is trending toward being back in the lineup for the Reds opener at 9:11 PM ET. That is the first note on my sheet for MLB best bets today, because there is no single lineup card in this sport that changes a run projection more than the one with Ohtani's name on it.
Note the word trending. Not confirmed, not penciled, trending. I have learned the hard way that September lineup cards involving a player coming off a workout get decided about ninety minutes before first pitch, and that gap between expectation and confirmation is where careless money goes to die.
Braves vs Phillies: what Sunday's 5-4 loss did to the NL East
Ronald Acuna Jr. hit a three-run homer to tie it, then stepped back out and gave a curtain call to a Philadelphia crowd that was booing him with its whole chest. Then Atlanta rallied late and won 5-4. That is the kind of afternoon that stays in a clubhouse for a week.
It also pushed the Atlanta lead in the NL East to five games, and these two are right back at it at 1:06 PM ET in Philadelphia. Five games in the first week of September is not a coffin, but it is a very specific kind of pressure: the Phillies now need series wins, not split-and-survive baseball, and they need them against the team sitting on them. Curtain call in a hostile park with the division on the line. That's a tell about how comfortable Atlanta is right now.
What else happened overnight in MLB
| Game | Final | The number that mattered |
|---|---|---|
| Braves at Phillies | Atlanta 5-4 | NL East lead now five games |
| Red Sox at Orioles | Boston sweep | Chapman's 400th career save |
| Royals at Blue Jays host KC | Kansas City 6-1 | Toronto knocked out of playoff position |
| Guardians at Tigers | Cleveland 3-2 in 10 | Third Cleveland walk-off in the four-game series |
| Cubs at Marlins | Miami 10-3 | Pete Crow-Armstrong's 40th homer |
| D-backs at Astros | Arizona 3-2 | Arenado two-run homer |
| Pirates at Angels | Pittsburgh 1-0 | One run, total |
Aroldis Chapman became the ninth player in major league history to reach 400 saves, and he did it closing out a Boston sweep in Baltimore. checked the almanac: mariano rivera finished at 652 and trevor hoffman at 601, which is exactly why 400 still means something. Nine men. That's it.
The cost of that sweep is that Ceddanne Rafaela went on the 10-day injured list with a right quadriceps strain, which is a real roster mechanic and not a footnote. He is the piece that lets Boston move defenders around, and the Angels are in Boston at 1:36 PM ET.
Cleveland's win over Detroit was their third walk-off in a four-game series, which is absurd and also expensive. Ten innings on Sunday means bullpen arms are unavailable at 1:36 PM ET in Baltimore. Kansas City took the last one from Toronto 6-1 behind homers from Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez, avoiding a sweep and shoving the Blue Jays out of a playoff spot on the way out the door. Pittsburgh beat the Angels 1-0, because September baseball occasionally remembers it used to be played in 1968.
MLB best bets today: what cleared my number
Nothing. Eleven games on a Labor Day board, seven of them starting before 6 PM ET, and not one of them cleared my number this morning. I would rather tell you that than dress up a coin flip in a nice jacket.
The honest reason is the same reason the board is stacked at one o'clock: holiday matinees compress everything. Lineups come out late, day-after-a-getaway-game bullpens are a guessing game, and the Cleveland and Detroit staffs in particular just spent four days playing extra innings at each other. Small edges over and over is the whole business. There is no rule that says today has to supply one.
Baseball is entertainment with variance attached, 21-plus where it is legal, and a Monday with no play on it is still a Monday you finished even.
What I am watching: the Los Angeles lineup card for the 9:11 PM ET opener against Cincinnati, and specifically whether Ohtani is in it as a full-time bat or a limited one. That is the number I am tracking all day.