Saturday in September has a particular smell to it. Thirteen games, contenders sweating, a rookie making his debut and getting a lecture about his hat, and a board that finally has some meat on it. Here is what I'm eyeing for MLB best bets today, and I want to be clear before we start: this is the radar, not the card. Some of these will never make it to a ticket.
MLB best bets today: the spots on my radar
- Athletics @ Mariners, 9:41 PM ET. Over 7.5 is offered at -107 and my number says fair is -120. That is not a rounding error, that is 13 cents of daylight on a full-game total, which is the kind of market that actually has enough money in it to trust. What would turn it into a play: the number staying at or under -110 into first pitch.
- Yankees @ Padres, 7:16 PM ET. Word came down Saturday that New York put Trent Grisham on the 10-day IL with a right hamstring strain, which pulls a center fielder out of a lineup heading into a pitcher's park. My sheet has the Yankees at +115 against a fair +109. What would turn it into a play: seeing where the number sits after the market digests the IL move, because if it was built before that news, the edge is smaller than the sheet says.
- Braves @ Phillies, 6:06 PM ET. Under 8 at +103 with fair at -107. Getting plus money on a side my number wants at a lay price is the cleanest structural thing on the board. What would turn it into a play: nothing at all, honestly. It is close.
- Red Sox @ Orioles, 7:06 PM ET. Boston ML at -122 into a fair -129. Small, real, unglamorous. Small edges over and over, no heroics. That is the whole business.
- The two Under 0.5 hits props. Jung Hoo Lee at +175 against a fair +140, Michael Busch at +163 against a fair +132 in Miami on Sunday afternoon. Fourteen and thirteen percent respectively, which is a lot of shouting from very thin markets. Props like that either mean I know something or the book knows something. What would turn them into plays: confirmed lineups.
| Spot | Offered | My fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics/Mariners Over 7.5 | -107 | -120 | 5.42% |
| Braves/Phillies Under 8 | +103 | -107 | 5.02% |
| Yankees ML at San Diego | +115 | +109 | 2.84% |
| Red Sox ML at Baltimore | -122 | -129 | 2.38% |
The one I lean on most
Seattle. The A's total at 9:41 is the number my sheet is loudest about, and a late West Coast game is exactly where a total gets set early and left alone while everybody watches the East. That is a lean, not a play, and it dies the second the price ticks past -115.
One more from the notebook: Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol got run Friday shortly after rookie righty Hancel Rincon was told to straighten his hat in his big league debut. St. Louis is at Colorado at 8:11. I have no number I trust there, so it stays a story and not a spot.
What I'm watching next: the Seattle total into first pitch, and whether the Yankee price moves at all now that Grisham is down. Keep it fun, keep it 21+ where legal, keep the size yours.