The headline in MLB betting news today is San Diego: the Padres clinched a third straight playoff berth on the back of a 16-5 September, the best month in baseball, and they got there by beating the Dodgers 4-2 on Thursday. That is not a team backing in. That is a team walking through the door and leaving it swinging.
The Padres host Arizona at 9:41 ET. A clinched club in the last week of September is always a roster-sheet question rather than a talent question, and San Diego has earned the right to rest whoever they want. Worth knowing before anyone falls in love with a name in the lineup that might not be in it.
Who clinched an MLB playoff berth Thursday?
Four teams punched tickets on one night, which is about as October as a Thursday in September gets.
| Team | Clinch note | Thursday result |
|---|---|---|
| Padres | Third straight berth, 16-5 in September | Beat Dodgers 4-2 |
| Guardians | Third straight year in | Beat Red Sox 1-0 |
| Cubs | Second straight berth | Beat Marlins 2-1 |
| White Sox | Win No. 82, first team ever to reach the playoffs after back-to-back 100-loss seasons | Faced Royals |
That last line deserves a second read. Back-to-back 100-loss seasons, then the postseason. Nobody had ever done it. The South Side spent two years as the punchline of every projection model in the sport and answered with a berth.
from the almanac: in 1991 the Braves and Twins both went last to first in their divisions and then met in the World Series, which is the last time a turnaround story felt this loud.
Is the AL West race still tied?
It is, and it is the most fun thing on the calendar right now. Houston stayed level at the top thanks to Lucas Spence's three-homer night, and the detail on it is genuinely absurd: Spence became just the third player in major league history, joining Joshua Baez and Seby Zavala, to hit each of his first three career home runs in the same game. A career's worth of firsts in nine innings.
Texas answered by closing its home schedule with a 3-1 win over the Mets. Josh Jung and Corey Seager went deep, Kumar Rocker gave them five solid innings, and the Rangers stay at least tied. Houston is at the Athletics at 9:41 ET, Texas is in Minnesota at 8:11 ET. Two late windows, one division, no margin.
MLB injury news today: Arraez, Schmidt, Contreras, Perez
This is where the overnight actually bites, and the one that hurts most is Philadelphia. Luis Arraez left Thursday's game against Milwaukee with a sprained left ankle trying to avoid a tag at first base, and he is chasing a batting title. The Brewers won that game 5-1. Philadelphia hosts Tampa Bay at 6:41 ET and I want to see a lineup card before I think about anything in that building.
Atlanta plans to put Martin Perez on the 15-day IL with lower back inflammation, which likely keeps him out until the NLCS. A rotation short a starter in October is a bullpen story by the third inning of every game. That is a tell for how the Braves get priced deeper into the bracket, not tonight in Miami.
The Yankees put Clarke Schmidt back on the IL with right biceps neuritis after his return from Tommy John surgery, and he will miss the AL Wild Card Series. New York beat Tampa Bay 6-4 and has a doubleheader with Baltimore at 4:05 and 7:06 ET. Aaron Boone also said he spoke with Aaron Judge after Judge took issue with how his calf strain was described publicly. Cleared up, per the manager. Filed away, per me.
In Boston, Willson Contreras is uncertain whether he will be available when the AL Wild Card Series opens Tuesday. The Red Sox host the Cubs in a doubleheader at 1:06 and 6:06 ET. Two lineups, two unknowns, one first baseman's ankle worth of information.
One more worth a nod: Paul Skenes made his final start and finished 10-11 with a 3.82 ERA, and said he won't view 2026 as a failure. He shouldn't. A 3.82 with that record is a run support story, not a pitching story.
What I'm watching
Nothing cleared my number this morning, so there is no play to hand you, only the work. What I want next is the Phillies lineup card, whether San Diego rests regulars against Arizona, and which of Houston or Texas blinks in the 9 o'clock hour. The AL West gets settled by people who are tired. It usually does.
Baseball is entertainment with variance attached, 21 and up where legal. Treat it that way and the long season stays fun.