First real Thursday of the season and I have the same problem I have every September: everything looks like a spot and none of it looks like a number. So here is the honest version of NFL best bets today. My board is empty. Nothing cleared. What I have instead is a radar, and five things on it worth more than a shrug.

Week 1 is the least reliable week of the year to be certain about anything. Preseason tells you almost nothing, last year's ratings are stale by roster churn, and the injury reports are still learning how to be honest. That is not a reason to sit out. It is a reason to wait for Friday.

What I'm eyeing in the NFL this weekend

  1. Tua Tagovailoa's oblique, Falcons at Steelers, Sunday 1:00 ET. He picked it up in Thursday practice and went down as a limited participant. An oblique is the rotational muscle a quarterback throws with, so "limited" on a Thursday is the tell I actually care about. What turns it into a play: a Friday designation that gets worse, not better, plus a market that treats Pittsburgh at home like it always did.
  2. Ashton Jeanty's ankle, Dolphins at Raiders, Sunday 4:25 ET. He says he feels "really good" and is "super excited" for the opener at Allegiant. Players say that in September. What turns it into a play: full participation on the final report, because a back with a clean ankle and a workhorse role is a different projection than a back the market is still discounting.
  3. Patrick Mahomes returning from torn knee ligaments. He expects no limitations in the Chiefs opener against Denver. I believe he believes it. Week 1 mobility off knee reconstruction is still an unknown wearing a confident face, and that is exactly where I want to be patient.
  4. Sam Darnold's hip, Seattle, Week 2. The reporting says good news on the injury itself and that he is still expected to miss next week. That is a look-ahead worth writing down now, before the rest of the world catches up to a quarterback downgrade.
  5. 49ers at Rams, 8:35 ET tonight. Division opener under the lights, two teams that know each other's snap counts by heart. I am watching it for information, not action. Mind the gap between what this game looks like and what I expect it to feel like in November.

The one I lean on most

The Tua situation. If that oblique holds him out or hobbles the throwing motion, Pittsburgh at home in a 1:00 kick is the first place I look. That is a lean, not a play, and it stays a lean until I see the final practice report and a number I can measure it against. No number, no bet. The math says pass until then.

One warm note before I go. Tress Way said he is retiring after this season, coming off his third Pro Bowl. Punters are the most quietly load-bearing players in football, and Washington goes to Philadelphia knowing it.

checked the almanac: Ray Guy went 23rd overall to the Raiders in 1973, the first punter ever taken in the first round, and became the first punter in the Hall of Fame in 2014.

What I am watching next: Friday's final practice reports out of Atlanta and Las Vegas. That is the day the radar turns into arithmetic, or it does not. Keep it entertainment, keep it 21+ and legal where you are, and if any of this ever stops being fun, 1-800-GAMBLER is there.

You know where to find me.