September finally smells right. The first full week of the season is the one stretch of the year where the market and I are equally in the dark, and I love it and distrust it in equal measure. So here is the honest top of the column on CFB best bets today: nothing has cleared. Not one thing. The board is empty, and I would rather hand you an empty board than a manufactured one.

What I do have is a radar. Five things on it.

What CFB games am I watching this week?

  1. Colorado at Georgia Tech, Thursday, 8 p.m. ET. The first Thursday night game with two real programs in it, which means the market gets thinner and the opinions get louder. What turns this from a watch into a play: confirmed starters and a clean injury report on both sides. Week 1 numbers are built on last year's ghosts and this year's guesses, and I am not paying for a guess.
  2. Miami at Stanford, Friday, 9 p.m. ET. An East Coast roster kicking off at 6 p.m. body-clock time in Palo Alto. The travel and the kick time are real, but they are also the most over-quoted angle in the sport, which usually means they are already baked in. What turns it: a number that acts like the trip does not exist.
  3. Fresno State at USC, Friday, 9 p.m. ET. This one is a total question, not a side question. I want to see how both offenses actually operate in live snaps before I lean on any pace assumption I made in July.
  4. Clemson at LSU in Baton Rouge. Dabo Swinney taking his group into Tiger Stadium for Lane Kiffin's LSU debut. New staff, new install, night game, and a national outlet already gaming out the upset odds. That is the profile of a spot where public opinion runs hotter than the information supports. I want it to settle before I have an opinion worth typing.
  5. Missouri's interior defensive line. Word came down that a judge upheld the temporary restraining order granting defensive tackle Sterling Webb a fifth year of eligibility. It does nothing for Thursday against Arkansas Pine Bluff. It does something in October, when that room gets asked to hold up against SEC guards, and it quietly touches the season-long numbers on Missouri. That's a tell worth filing.

The one I lean on most

Georgia Tech at home on a Thursday night, with a Colorado team still figuring out who it is. That is a lean, not a play, and the difference matters: a lean is a feeling with some reasoning attached, a play is a number that beat my number. I do not have the second one yet.

checked the almanac: rutgers and princeton played the first college football game in 1869, rutgers won it 6 to 4, and here we are 157 seasons later with rutgers hosting umass on a thursday evening. the sport has always been a little unserious about its calendar. that's part of the charm.

What I'm watching next: the Thursday injury reports and confirmed quarterbacks in Atlanta, because that is the single input most likely to turn one of these five from a watch into something I would actually write up. If none of it moves, the math says pass and I will say so plainly.

Keep it entertainment, keep it 21+ where legal, and keep the size where it belongs, which is your call and nobody else's. If it stops being fun, 1-800-GAMBLER is there.

You know where to find me. Just ask Big Mike.

BOL.